by Anita S. Lane
To put it mildly, Senator Barack Obama is a genuine phenomenon on the current political scene. You may not like his politics, but you’ll likely find it hard not to like him. After 37 contests for the democratic presidential nomination and the accumulation of 1,253 pledged delegates (42 more than Clinton), Barack Obama stands ready to face whatever challenges may lay ahead in order to win the Democratic nomination and the Presidency of the United States.
Can he do it? I suspect he can.
Ride the Wave
After Obama’s decisive victories in Virginia, Maryland, Washington. D.C., Maine, Washington State, Nebraska, and the Virgin Islands during the month of February, Obama is riding a wave of momentum that will be hard to halt. I propose it cannot be stopped, but it may also be difficult to slow down. Like a tidal wave on the islands of Obama’s native Hawaii, the wave his campaign is currently riding is only growing stronger and more formidable as it approaches the shore. If the Obama team is wise, they’ll pick up their surf boards and ride the current wave right through Wisconsin, on to Hawaii, right into the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio in the March 4th primaries, and come ashore victoriously in Pennsylvania on April 22nd.
It Began One Cold February Night
A year ago, Senator Barack Obama announced his candidacy for the Presidency for the United States before 16,000 people on a cold February day in Springfield, Illinois—the home of President Abraham Lincoln. Many thought his candidacy was premature, and looking back, it’s likely the Clinton campaign did not view the Obama campaign as a serious threat either.
A year later, those assumptions—and all assumptions—have changed.
Conventional Wisdom Dispelled
Today, Barack Obama has out lasted every other Democratic contender to become the last man standing in the ring with Senator Hillary Clinton. In addition, it is now clear that Barack has out-raised, out-campaigned and out-managed the Clinton campaign. What is his secret?
Vision, hope, charisma, a consistent message and a popular, unifying message of change—combined with a highly-skilled, well-organized leadership team and effective ground troops at the grassroots level. The Obama campaign is also infused with loads of energy, enthusiastic supporters, and last but not least—a hefty war chest.
The question is, did anyone, including Barack Obama, believe he could really get the type of response and support he is now getting?Whether anyone saw it or not is now irrelevant. As of February 13, 2008, Senator Barack Obama now has more votes, more pledged delegates and was won more contests than his rival Hillary Clinton. Can he win? Yes he can.
Yes He Can
- Senator Barack Obama has had the right message from the very beginning of his candidacy—Change. He’s set the tone in this race—on both sides of the contest—that everyone else has followed. Yet Obama has never changed his message. Obama’s never changed his message because he knows that his message is on point. He understands that Americans are weary—weary from working harder with little to show for it. Weary from worrying if they’ll have a job, be able to keep their home, send their children to college or retire.
- Obama can win the democratic nomination because he offers Americans what we need most at this particular point in time—hope. Obama resonates with what each of us as Americans wants desperately to believe—that things will get better.
- Obama has detailed strategies for moving America forward that address the core issues like the economy, healthcare, immigration and the war in Iraq, and he’s surrounded by highly-skilled and experienced individuals on whom he can depend to help him deliver if elected in November.
- Personally, Obama is inspirational, charismatic, believable and knows how to connect with all types of people. He believes the best of people and brings out the best in people.
- When it comes time to choose between Obama and McCain in the general election— as qualified as McCain may be— it will be difficult to top the energy, vigor and inspiration that Obama and his supporters bring to the race. Not to mention, it will be very difficult for McCain to run against “Hope.”
Change is a Balm
Today, more individuals are united behind the concept of change than in any other decade in recent history. Neither do we want to wait for it—and Obama knows it may be now or never. Obama often states in his campaign speeches, “I am running because of what MLK calls the fierce urgency of now…Because I believe there’s such a thing as being too late. And that hour is almost upon us. We are at a defining moment in our history. Our nation is at war. Our planet is at peril. The dream that so many generations fought for feels like it’s slowly slipping away.”
Slowly…Slipping…Away… That is the fear to which Obama brings the antidote of hope—and the change—that Americans want so desperately in which to believe.
So can he win the nomination? (Barring a political upset by the Democratic super delegates), yes he can. Can he win the presidency of the United States? Yes he can. Can he really bring Americans together? Yes he can.
Americans want to start fresh. They want a president who is honest and intelligent--not to mention well-spoken; a president who listens and is willing to learn; a president who is teachable and willing to admit a mistake. America wants a president who can unify the country rather than separate it. Americans have felt disengaged from the decisions made by the current president and congress. Americans now want to be a part of the solution—no matter what side of the political isle they are on.
The February 12th contest in Virginia reiterates this point. CNN exit polls revealed that Obama overwhelmingly carried the 7% of Republicans who voted in the Democratic primary. Such individuals affectionately call themselves, Obamicans.
The Obamican Factor
In a close general election, capturing seven percent of the Republican electorate could turn the tide for the Democrats. And if one wonders how a Republican could vote for Obama, one explanation might be his demeanor. Aside from being almost as fed up as the Democrats with the current administration, Barack Obama discusses the issues in a way that doesn’t alienate conservatives and evangelicals.
Obama is a Democrat who accurately, and with compassion, describes abortion as a “moral issue” (not just a “choice”), and refers to marriage as a “religious ceremony” rather than just a “civil ceremony,” when describing why he is opposed to “gay” marriage.
As a result, Barack Obama will continue to win over independents and some Republicans because he speaks respectfully about conservatives and the views they hold. Whereas many liberal Democrats portray conservatives and evangelicals as mindless morons who are intolerant extremists, Barack Obama chooses not to demonize these individuals. He seems to understand that individuals who hold different views from him are just that—different. Others’ views may be different, but valid nonetheless.
President Obama
I predict that Barack Obama will win the Democratic party nomination and the general election in November because from the very beginning, he was wise enough to identify and build a campaign around the deep desire in the heart of most Americans—CHANGE.
Barack Obama will win because his campaign is supremely energized, well-funded and and effectively organized. Barack Obama will win because he represents the type of intelligent, honest, open-minded and respectful leadership America wants. Obama will win because he inspires voters to believe in him, as well as themselves, and join him in the fight for change in America.
Lastly, and for the most important reason of all—Barack Obama will win the Democratic party nomination because the voters have spoken—and will continue to speak—until he ascends to the White House.
Copyright © 2008 by Anita S. Lane
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